Strong returns, fair value and more debt help to put Europe at the top of international hotel investors’ wish list according to research from JLL Hotels & Hospitality Group
The Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) hotel investment market is set for another bumper year according to research undertaken by JLL’s Hotel & Hospitality Group.
EMEA
is projected to see close to $25 billion in hotel trades in 2015 – up
from $21.5 billion in 2014 and representing 36% of all hotel
transactions globally.
Much of this activity will be driven by
large single-asset transactions, led by London and Paris, while
portfolio deals are anticipated in the U.K. and Germany.
Global
hotel real estate transaction volumes are expected to reach $68billion
in 2015 with global funds and private equity groups based in the U.S.
and Western Europe leading the charge. The U.K., Germany and the US
represent the biggest destinations for private equity capital globally.
Asian
money will also feature more strongly in 2015, especially driven by
Chinese capital. Asian insurance companies have helped grow the swell of
outbound capital from several hundred million dollars annually during
the past several years to nearly $1 billion in 2014. Global cities with
direct flight connections to China such as London, Paris, Amsterdam,
Dubai are high on investors’ wish lists.
Attractive yields
North
American private equity funds have cash to deploy in the short term and
European yields remain some of the most attractive – especially at a
time when prices continue to rise on home soil.
“Whilst the question
of fair value resounds through the sector, Europe still offers more
upside on the recovery curve, with per-key values of assets still below
the previous peak in both Western and emerging Europe. In 2015, we will
see private equity investors look to higher yielding markets such as
Southern and emerging Europe, as investors continue to follow
opportunities.” Said Christoph Härle CEO EMEA, JLL Hotels & Hospitality Group.
“Many
European countries have additionally reached their occupancy ceiling.
Thus, average rates will be the key driver of RevPAR moving forward,
boding well for hotel profit increases. The Middle East is expected to
see growth as well, and hotels in Africa will at times experience
double-digit RevPAR growth.” Said Härle.
Opening up of debt
Last
year saw debt opening up in a controlled manner in the Eurozone as
balance sheet lenders made their way back into the hotel lending space.
“2015
will mark the redemption of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities
(CMBS) market as a debt investment product, in the UK and Continental
Europe. With improved underwriting standards and increased subordination
levels, we expect bond investors to accept hotel assets as underlying
security again, closing some of the funding gap in the space. The return
of CMBS will provide potential for growth, which will help support the
growing investor demand for acquisitions in EMEA and will stretch equity
further. In addition, direct lending funds (Shadow-banks) are
increasingly closing the LTV gap between the current 50%-55% senior
position and the 75% LTV. More push from capital exporters in China and
the Middle East will put an upward pressure on deal flow as well.” Continued Härle.
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